These days, Yang Yunshan, in Xihu Village, Huikou Town, Susong County, has been tangled with this year's cotton. If so, what is the appropriate arrangement of planting area? Today, with the downturn in the cotton market, many cotton farmers in our province are as rampant as Yang Yunshan. In addition, the cotton subsidies last year, many cotton farmers have not yet obtained, in the end what reason? What is the trend of this year's cotton market?

Cotton subsidies issued before the end of the month

The reporter learned from the Provincial Department of Finance's Office of Construction that this year our province has received 526 million yuan in subsidies from the central government for cotton in 2014. The maximum subsidy per mu for cotton farmers in the province's cotton areas cannot exceed 140 yuan. The target of cotton subsidies is farmers in our province (including village collective mobile land contractors) and local state-owned farms, agricultural reclamation enterprises, and cotton growers, agricultural industrialization enterprises, and other cotton growers. The subsidy method is based on counties, according to the actual cotton of the year. Both the planting area and the local mu subsidy standard are paid out.

“The funds for cotton subsidies throughout the country should be sent down before the end of this month.” According to relevant sources from the Provincial Department of Finance, the funds for cotton subsidies are subject to closed operations and account management. All the subsidy funds in our province were included in the grain risk account, and were managed and allocated. The subsidy funds are directly transferred from the Provincial Department of Finance to grain risk ** accounts set up by local county (city, district) finance bureaus in the local Agricultural Development Bank. Counties (cities, districts) finance bureaus subsidize farmers' “cards” through financial subsidies and pay them directly to cotton farmers. For other cotton production units, a centralized payment method can be adopted to allocate the subsidy funds to their bank accounts.

Susong County, Wangkou Agricultural Technology Station Wang Bin station manager told reporters that the cotton per mu yield of 500 kg per mu, subsidy of 140 yuan per mu allocated to only 0.28 yuan per kilogram of seed cotton, and 2013 average annual sales price of seed cotton 4 yuan / Compared to the kilogram, the kilogram of seed cotton is still 0.7 yuan lower.

Li An, an analyst at Huaan Cotton, believes that although the cotton subsidy policy will certainly help improve cotton farmers' income from cotton planting, especially in some provinces where yields and cotton quality are good, the income of cotton farmers has increased. Mainland cotton farmers believe that the amount of the subsidy is relatively low compared to Xinjiang, and that the comparative benefits of cotton have no advantage. Therefore, the new cotton subsidy policy has little to do to encourage cotton farmers to plant cotton.

Cotton planting area or reduced by 40%

“Last year, there were 35,000 mu of cotton planting area in our town, and this year it has been reduced to 15,000 mu.” Wang Bin told reporters that compared with 2011, which had the highest cultivation area, it was reduced by about 50,000 mu. Now there are almost no scale growers engaged in cotton cultivation, mainly scattered farmers, with an average area of ​​less than 10 acres per household.

Not only Susong, but also the Wuwei County, a cotton-growing county in our province. Li Nengshu, the person in charge of Xinyuan Village in the town of Baijing Town, told the reporter that among less than 20% of the 4,500 mu of cultivated land in the village, cotton is still planted, and the rest of the cultivated land has been changed to corn and other grain crops.

Any solidarity of the provincial economic institute of the Academy of Agricultural Sciences told the reporter that the cotton planting situation this year is not optimistic and the cotton area may be greatly reduced. According to a survey conducted by the China Cotton Association in early April, among the 2,930 cotton farmers surveyed, 43% are cotton farmers who are preparing to reduce the cotton planting area, and 3.58% are preparing to increase cotton farmers, which is equivalent to 45.32% of the previous year. Accounted for 8.09%. According to the intention of cotton farmers surveyed, the average planting intention of the national cotton farmers decreased by 23.61%.

The association estimates that the area of ​​cotton planted in 2015 will be 48.426 million mu. Compared with the previous year, the cotton planting area in the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 42.76%, of which cotton planting area in Hubei Province decreased by nearly 50%; cotton planting area in Hunan Province decreased by 40.96%; Anhui Cotton Planting Area last year was 3,072,800 mus. It is estimated that the area of ​​cotton planted this year will be only 181.17 million mu, a decrease of 41.04%.

Up and down the price of cotton

According to Li An, an analyst at Huaan** Cotton, since September 2011, the state has implemented a policy of cotton collection and storage for three consecutive years, accumulatively collecting and storing 16.18 million tons of cotton. Although the sale of reserve cotton was conducted several times during the period, the volume of dumped stocks was limited and eventually accumulated more than 12 million tons of stocks. This inventory data has not taken into consideration the country’s stocks prior to 2011/12 and cotton imported from other sources. Such a huge inventory has always been a sword above the market, suppressing the price of cotton can not lift.

At the same time, according to customs statistics, in the first six months of 2014/15, China imported 881,700 tons of cotton, a decrease of 47% year-on-year. In the first two months of 2015, imports totaled 323,300 tons, a decrease of 40.5% year-on-year. In the country's strict control over imported cotton, it is difficult for foreign cotton to enter the customs, but the import of cotton yarn is not controlled. Therefore, under the circumstances that foreign cotton prices are lower than domestic ones, enterprises have increased the import volume of cotton yarns, especially at low prices. The Indian yarn has a great impact on the domestic market.

Li Li believes that although the domestic cotton acreage has declined sharply, and the upstream demand has a slow growth trend, from the perspective of new cotton, it is insufficient to meet the needs, but the huge national reserve stocks are likely to sell to the market at any time, and the cotton price rises. Plays an inhibitory effect. Therefore, under the backdrop of loose domestic supply, the decline in new cotton production this season has little effect on the market. The decline in the area of ​​cotton, coupled with the support of farmers' cotton planting costs, is not much room for cotton prices. Li Li estimates that the 2015 standard seed cotton purchase price may fluctuate between 3-3.4 yuan/kg.