In January, China’s textile and apparel exports fell by 10.8% year-on-year. When people haven’t slapped since January’s plunge, they’ve received a 99.3% surge in February exports. From a drop of 10.8% to a growth of 99.3%, it is like going from the bottom to the top. The heart of the textile people is like a roller coaster, and the data changes greatly. Should we be happy? Is the spring of exports coming in? Will future trends increase substantially in February?

Please remain calm and objective before searching for answers, and it may be too early to judge the future. First of all, the decline is good, growth is worth mentioning, are compared with the same period last year, and from the absolute value of exports in January and February this year, January textile and apparel exports totaled about 25.54 billion US dollars, while the total exports in February is 21.68 billion US dollars, a decline of 15%.

In addition, industry experts also stated that due to the coincidence of the Chinese New Year in January and February of each year, the data changes are also normal. Usually before the Spring Festival, local companies competed for shipments, making the first month after the festival more bleak. In the past few years, most of the Spring Festival had appeared in January. Therefore, the data in February is often “ugly”. The low base is an important reason for creating “God growth” in February of this year. Experts said that with one or two months of data is not enough to judge the industry trend. To study the export situation, please use the quarter as the unit, and at least observe the conclusion after 3 months.

In spite of this, the driving force behind the data ups and downs can not be ignored. Why is "God growth" going to occur this year? There are two other important reasons besides the low base. First, on January 1 this year, the new tax rebate on export tax rebates began. The export tax rebate rate for many textile and apparel items was raised from 16% to 17%. Under the bad situation, the adjustment of the export tax rebate rate has greatly eased the pressure on enterprises. In order to enjoy the export tax rebate, some companies have made requests for delayed shipments to buyers because they know that the New Deal will often have a time lag from the announcement to the actual implementation. It can be seen from this that China's export tax rebate policy is of great significance to the industry and has greatly mobilized the export enthusiasm of the company. At a time when production costs are constantly rising, they have high hopes for this one percentage point increase.

The second and most important driving force is the devaluation of the ***. Exchange rate changes have always played a huge role in the import and export trade. Since last year, the *** has seen significant depreciation against the US dollar. In the first two months of this year, the depreciation rate of the *** against the US dollar was nearly 1%. This is undoubtedly a big plus for exporters. Especially in February, the *** against the US dollar spot exchange rate repeatedly approached the limit price. A number of interviewed companies stated that it is expected that textile and apparel exports will be boosted in the short term.

The change of exchange rate is probably one of the most mysterious things. A few days ago, the company still believes that the devaluation will continue for some time. With the exchange rate fluctuations in recent days, people's expectations are no longer as positive as they were before, so this year the whole The export trend remains to be seen.

In short, we should not be too nervous about the ups and downs. Do a good job of their own business, do a good job of their own products, regardless of what the outside world, good companies can build their lives.