Huitong.com June 26th - Monday (June 26) European time, US durable goods orders are not good, the US dollar index turned from ups and downs, hit a new low of 97.15 a week, the bulls are weak, the trend is becoming more neutral; gold collapses Falling more than 17 US dollars, suspected that "fat finger" caused long-term stop loss, long-term big losses; US crude oil production capacity continued to rise, the market questioned the effect of reducing production, oil price rebound was blocked, US oil refreshed daily low 42.63 US dollars / barrel.



European time hot spot review:
1. Reuters: South Africa's Sibanye Gold is expected to restart the Cook gold mine this week; South African precious metal producer Sibanye Gold is aiming to resume production later this week, after the strike caused the Cook gold mine to stop production, the company plans to A pair of mining shafts are used for safety inspections.

2. European Commission President Juncker's adviser: Britain or trying to split the EU; EU unity or slightly damaged due to trade negotiations; Britain does not want to collapse the EU; difficult to establish part of the customs union with the UK; there may be some room for manoeuvre in the customs union .

3. The German central bank monthly report: It is estimated that the German economy will continue to follow the path of strong growth; in the second quarter, the German economy should continue to maintain strong growth since the winter; the CPI is expected to be near the May level in the next few months; German private spending is an important support for the economy; a vibrant manufacturing industry is leading the German economy; construction activity is expected to grow further and the service sector will continue to grow.

4. British officials: British Prime Minister Teresa May and the Northern Ireland Democratic Unity Party signed an agreement on the formation of a coalition government. Reuters said that the British Conservative Party and the Northern Ireland Democratic Unity Party have signed an agreement on the formation of a coalition government.

5. Foster, leader of the Democratic Republic of Northern Ireland, has reached a joint ruling agreement with the British Conservative Party. The guiding principle of the agreement is that the national interest is supreme; the two sides agree to achieve the NATO expenditure target; the agreement signed with the Conservative Party will be published in full; the British government will Announced a new financial aid agreement for Northern Ireland; welcomed the $1 billion worth of financial aid in two years; will continue to discuss power sharing issues with the Conservative Party; the Conservative Party and the Northern Ireland Democratic Unity Party have established a Coordinating Committee for Cooperation; Government legislation on Brexit and national security.

6. British Prime Minister Teresa May: The Northern Ireland Democratic Unity Party will support the Conservative Party in the Queen's speech vote, budget, Brexit legislation and national security legislation; and the agreement with the Northern Ireland Democratic Unity Party to keep us committed Clearly; at the time of Brexit, the agreement gave us the certainty we needed.

7. Federal Reserve Dudley: The market reacted to the contraction, indicating that the Fed communication is effective;
1 The contract will be easy to communicate with the market to reduce the negative impact on the market;
2 The Fed adopts a cautious and cautious attitude in terms of contraction; it must take into account the financial situation when it is reduced;
3 The US financial system has been significantly strengthened; the recent easing of the US financial situation is another reason to tighten policy; the Fed needs to pay attention to the impact of its policies on foreign countries.

8. JP Morgan Chase: Advance the Bank of England rate hike expectation from 2019 to August 2018;
1JPMorgan Chase said that due to the Bank of England’s vote at the June meeting and Hald’s unexpected hawkish remarks, the bank’s forecast of the Bank of England’s first rate hike of 25 basis points was advanced from 2019 to August 2018. ;
2 Morgan Chase strategist Francis Diamond and others wrote in the customer report that “the global financial background has been reduced, providing modest support for economic growth, and it is expected that there will be a managed and orderly British The European transformation will be clear in 2018."

9. British Prime Minister Teresa May: When the UK leaves for Europe, no EU citizens are required to leave the UK; after the Brexit, Irish citizenship rights will not be affected; EU citizens who legally reside in the UK will be treated as British citizens. Treated; the British government needs the EU to provide a reciprocal agreement for more than one million British citizens living in the EU; the English courts have the ability to safeguard the rights of EU residents in the UK.

10. According to foreign media: The British government will consider the choice of EU immigration policy after Brexit and will launch relevant immigration policies as soon as possible.

Key market analysis:
Durable goods orders stifle the US dollar, Mei Lan saves the pound <br>The durable goods orders announced in European time are not performing well, the US dollar index turned from ups and downs, hitting a new low of 97.15 a week; the current exchange rate is testing the 20th Bollinger Band 97.10, the bulls are weak The trend is becoming more neutral; there is no obvious direction in the European currency period, and there is no obvious direction. During the period, the British Conservative Party and the Northern Ireland Democratic Unity Party reached an agreement to form a cabinet. The pound regained the decline but was unable to go up; the Japanese silver squeezed the pigeons, the United States The market refreshed three trading day highs; commodity currencies rebounded across the board and may re-explore.



The durable goods order data published during the period is as follows:

The recent economic data in the United States has performed poorly, and the durable goods order data released in the day has deepened this concern. Inflation fell in May, with retail sales hitting the worst in a year in May, and non-agricultural growth slower than expected in May, both showing that the US economy is not as strong as expected.

In addition, during European time, the British Prime Minister Teresa May and the Northern Ireland Democratic Unity Party signed an agreement on the formation of a coalition government; this has alleviated the political uncertainty in the UK to a certain extent, and the short-term positive for the pound.

Oolong refers to reappearing gold plunging 17 dollars, durable goods orders to ease the disease <br> European time, spot gold in the absence of major news in the fundamentals, short-term sudden diving more than 17 dollars, a new low since May 18, $ 1235.94 / Oz, the intraday decline quickly expanded to nearly 1.7%; there is no accurate reason for the current fundamentals, market speculation or due to programmatic trading or traders "fat finger".



After the price of gold fell below the two important integer support levels of $1,250 and $1,240, it triggered a large number of long-term stops, which triggered a short-term bullish market. The COMEX gold futures contract surged to 17,989 lots in one minute, with a turnover of over 2.238 billion. Dollar.

Although the late poor durable goods orders were more bullish gold, but after this plunge, the bulls were badly hurt and the gold price was weak.

The rebound in oil prices was hindered, and the market questioned the effect of reducing production. The crude oil price fluctuated from the high point in the European session during the European period. US oil refreshed by 42.63 US dollars per barrel. The oil price rebound in Asia was only due to short covering; but the production capacity in the US Against the background of continued rise, the market's confidence in reducing production and boosting oil prices continued to be weakened, and oil prices remained weak in the short term.



The number of US oil drillings increased for the 23rd consecutive week (50 weeks in the past 52 weeks), the highest level since August 2015; however, rising land costs began to affect the profitability of Delaware oil companies, some new investment Those who were unable to make a profit were forced to evacuate; if oil prices continue to fall, the number of oil wells will stop growing in the coming months, and the upward trend in crude oil production will also stagnate.

According to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data, the speculative net long position of Brent crude oil futures for the week ended June 20 decreased by 54162 lots to 228,995 lots; as of June 20, the speculative net long position of gasoline futures increased by 4,122 lots. 9012 hands; hedge funds reduced their speculative net long position in Brent crude oil futures to a new low since January 2016; this indicates that the market continues to cool down.

JP Morgan Chase: The Brent crude oil price forecast for the fourth quarter was reduced from 57 US dollars / barrel to 52 US dollars / barrel; indicating that the organization's bullish position has also begun to waver.