"This is my secret. I don't tell them about my general colleagues. Someone saw me and asked me, I will take a haha ​​to deal with the past." Zhao Zhongwei (a pseudonym) with a thick black hair on the "First Financial Daily" The reporter said. He worked as a maintenance worker at a hotel in Beijing, with a monthly salary of 2,600 yuan. He is extroverted, usually laughing and joking, and his colleagues like him very much.

Zhao Zhongwei's secret is the thick black hair on his head - it is a fine workmanship wig , spent more than 200 yuan.

"I thank you very much, and like the little old man. When you apply, the leader said, your skills are good, but you are too old. I quickly went to buy a wig to wear." Zhao Zhongwei said.

In addition to the wig, Zhao Zhongwei has a secret. For this secret, he is tight-lipped to all his colleagues. After the reporter promised not to mention his real name, he was informed of his secret.

This secret is about his true age. From the ID card, Zhao Zhongwei was born in 1970, just 42 years old. But in fact, he was born in 1963 and is 49 years old this year.

"I was wrong when I was doing the ID card. I didn't expect to help me a lot now. I don't even talk to anyone. If the unit knows, it will definitely not want me. Those who are running 50, the technology is good, who will What about it?" said Zhao Zhongwei.

The wig really helped Zhao Zhongwei to be very busy. Now he looks very spirited, and he looks like he is about forty years old. The wife was shocked when he first saw him wearing a wig and almost didn't recognize it.

Zhao Zhongwei has worked in many cities such as Nanjing and Dalian. He has an electrician certificate in his hand and is a skilled worker in property maintenance. But if it is not the age of the ID card, it is difficult for him to find a job in the city.

"We are like the age of my village, I have been a grandfather. In addition to a few working in the construction team, all the other homes." Zhao Zhongwei said.

Zhao Zhongwei and his fellow villagers are faced with a typical middle-aged peasant worker's dilemma – in the countryside, they are classified as surplus labor. In the city, they can hardly find a suitable job. The city and the factory welcome young people. Strong and sensitive young people.

Behind such a middle-aged peasant worker's dilemma is China's enriched labor pool is facing a depletion situation - the labor market is mostly a middle-aged and older labor force over 40 years old, forming a need with the labor market. The staggered, and ten-year-old shortage of migrant workers is only a representation of this subtle layer.

Labor pools are shrinking

Among many people's impressions, China, the country with the largest population in the world, has a super-rich labor pool, which is almost inexhaustible. Whether it is a textbook or an expert speech, such a statement is not uncommon.

Due to the persistence of the labor shortage, there is a divergence of views on the Chinese labor reservoir. Some experts still insist that China has a rich labor supply, and China's labor supply will not be a problem in the next decade.

Another point of view is that the total labor supply in China is still considerable. However, due to major problems in the age structure, the supply of young labor continues to decrease, and the surplus of middle-aged and old labor is bound to affect China’s economic and social development. A major impact.

Wang Qing, former chief economist at Morgan Stanley Greater China, collaborated with colleagues in 2010 to report on China's labor supply for the next decade. The report entitled "China's Labor Supply Still Ample before 2020" is optimistic. If calculated according to 2008 data, it is estimated that about 80 million to 100 million rural laborers can be transferred to non-agricultural industries or urban areas. . Considering the effective transfer of labor and the improvement of labor productivity, the situation of China's labor supply in the future will not be as bad as people worry, but will ensure sufficient supply.

However, in the eyes of other scholars, this conclusion is a bit too optimistic. It is critical that this study was done before the release of the sixth census data.

But the final data is far from optimistic. According to the data released in the sixth census, the average fertility rate between 1996 and 2010 was as low as 1.4, and according to the United Nations population growth rate, the fertility rate below 1.5 is an ultra-low fertility rate.

According to research by Yi Fuxian, a US demographer and author of "The Empty Nest of the Great Powers", since 2003, China's 20-39-year-old young labor force reached a peak of 450 million, and began to grow negatively; from 2009, 19 to 22 After the age of the population reached its peak, it began to decrease sharply.

According to the statistics of the Henan Provincial Department of Human Resources and Social Security, the growth rate of total labor supply in Henan Province has been decreasing in recent years, and it is expected that it will “see the top” from 2013 to 2014. In 2007, more than 2 million new rural laborers were transferred to employment in Henan Province. In 2008, it was 1.8 million. In 2009, it fell to 1.03 million. In 2010, it was 1.05 million. In 2011, it was 1.02 million. 89% are transferred within the province.